The Rainfall Extremes in India surpass Climate Projections

According to the latest reports, a monsoon pattern anticipated only in 2040 is taking place in India already, which indicates that global warming is disrupting monsoon patterns far earlier than expected. The recent increase in extreme rainfalls events is indicative of the necessity to use new models to predict and address future hazards.

Growing Rainfall Extremes

The data on rainfall 1951-2022 verifies that there was a gradual increase in the extreme events. There were 502 very heavy rains above 115.6 mm recorded in June 2025 alone, the most in decades and compared to 494 such events in 2023. Such extremes are directly associated with floods, flash floods, and landslides in the country.

Models Falling Behind Reality.

The CMIP6 projections implied that the worst-case scenario would only increase rainfall extremes after 2027. However, these changes are already being witnessed and this shows that even the current models are underestimating the rate and the magnitude of the impacts of climate changes in India.

Sea changes and oscillations.

El Ninos and La Nina cycles still have an effect on rainfall but they are changing. As an example, June 2021 with La Nina recorded fewer extremes, and June 2023 with El Nino recorded the second-most extremes. Such deviations indicate global warming is changing natural climate interactions in ways that are not predictable.

Accelerated Global Warming

After 2010, the rate of warming had increased more than 50 times that of 1970-2010. Aerosols or drivers over El Nino are seen in sudden temperature spikes of 0.4degC. Scientists caution against going beyond dangerous tipping points, including the possibility of the break-down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which may disrupt weather systems on a planetary level.

Call for New Climate Models

Scientists are calling out the creation of real time climate models that are based on observation and also include paleoclimate information and polar ice monitoring. In contrast to conventional IPCC models, these next-generation models may be more responsive to fast warming patterns and extreme weather to facilitate more precise risk management.