IEA Predicts Quadrupling of Sustainable Fuel Use by 2035

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global use of sustainable fuels could quadruple by 2035 , driven by existing policies, investment incentives, and international cooperation. The findings were released ahead of Brazil’s COP30 presidency in the report Delivering Sustainable Fuels: Pathways to 2035 .

Key Highlights:

• Sustainable fuels include biofuels, biogases, low-emissions hydrogen, and hydrogen-based synthetic fuels , complementing electrification and reducing fossil fuel dependence.

• Current impact: Sustainable fuels reduce oil demand by 2.5 million barrels per day , with Brazil using nearly 10% of its energy from renewable fuels.

• Liquid biofuels dominate transport energy (≈4%), while biogases and hydrogen are in early adoption stages.

Economic & Environmental Benefits:

• Enhance energy security and reduce import dependency.

• Support rural job creation and industrial growth.

• Reduce GHG emissions , contributing to global climate targets.

• Potentially generate USD 1.5 trillion in investments and 2 million jobs globally by 2035.

Sectoral Outlook by 2035:

• Road transport: 10% of fuel demand met by sustainable fuels.

• Aviation: 15%

• Shipping: 35%

• Post-2030, industry and power generation will increasingly rely on low-emissions hydrogen for chemicals, steel, and refining.

IEA Recommendations:

1. Develop regional policy roadmaps .

2. Improve demand predictability to attract investment.

3. Implement transparent carbon accounting .

4. Support technology innovation and cost efficiency.

5. Build infrastructure and supply chains .

6. Expand financing channels , particularly for developing countries.

The IEA stresses global coordination , with agencies like ICAO and IMO facilitating broader adoption in aviation and maritime sectors.