AMOC Collapse Red Flag Event

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important system of ocean currents at risk of collapsing in the next century, unlike any other period. Studies caution that its tipping point could be reached within a few decades, and that it could be completely shut down within 50-100 years.

What is AMOC?

The flow of warm tropical waters to the north due to AMOC will cool down and sink back to the south as deep currents. This belt of the world controls the climate, distributes the heat and maintains marine life.

Current Weakening

• AMOC has never been weaker in 1,600 years.
• Melting greenland ice and inflow of arctic freshwater is decreasing the density of water, interfering with circulation.
• Models indicate a weakening of the gulf stream (a component of AMOC) by 2100 that is projected at 34-45 percent as the system approaches instability.

Consequences of Collapse

• Europe will experience massive cooling and less precipitation.
• There can be an increase in sea ice and local cooling in North Atlantic.
• The tropical rain belts would move to the south interfering with agriculture and water supply.
• This would have a devastating impact on ecosystems, food security and human settlements across the globe.

Role of Other Oceans

Warming of the Indian Ocean is now enhancing AMOC by elevating the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean. However, when the Pacific warms at a comparable rate this stabilising effect could be lost and this will further destabilise the system.

Future Climate Outlook

There is no longer a category of scientists who might claim that AMOC collapse is a low-probability event. It would reach its tipping point in a few decades, and although closure might require a century, the consequences would be irreparable. This can be avoided by adopting immediate climate action to reduce global temperature changes and ensuring the safety of the vital ocean systems.