The next climate summit (COP 30) in November 2025 in Belem, Brazil, comes at a critical time. With international attempts to limit climate change off track, the conference is likely to see the world’s resolve put to the test in the face of a planetary emergency.
The Widening Ambition Gap
The 2015 Paris Agreement aimed to limit the rise in average global temperatures to significantly below 2°C, preferably limiting such rise to 1.5°C. However, the amount that countries are currently committed to through their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) is grossly insufficient. The anticipated contributions so far would nudge the world into a dangerous range of 2.6°C to 2.8°C of warming — a figure that would translate into 3.1C without any additional policy action, according to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024.
Economic Imperative for Action
The economic price of doing nothing is nothing short of astronomical, especially for the developing world. The Asian Development Bank estimates that unchecked emissions would contract the region’s G.D.P. by 17 percent from India’s to Japan’s by 2070; India’s economy could contract by close to 25 percent.
Disparities in Responsibility and Action
One key tension is the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.” Although six of the largest emitters (the U.S., E.U., China, Russia, Japan, and India) represent 74% of all of the world’s cumulative CO2 emissions, their present day emissions and per capita emissions range considerably. Post-1995, developed countries have come down on their emissions but are keeping them per capita at high levels (U.S. at 14.3 tonnes). Emissions, meanwhile, has risen in China, Russia and India, where per capita emissions are low at 2.1 tonnes.
The Need for Unified Leadership
COP 30 will need to address the declining commitment, in particular from the developed countries. The U.S.’s juddering – from Obama’s Paris commitment to Trump’s withdrawal – has derailed global efforts, and the whole sorry saga has dumped a further billions of tonnes of CO2. Brazil and India, which have relatively low carbon emissions per capita, are poised to form coalitions of developing nations aimed at pressing developed countries to meet historical responsibilities and offer larger assistance.
COP 30 success will depend on recreating trust and achieving more ambitious, fair commitments that match the urgency of the climate emergency.
Month: Current Affairs - August 21, 2025
Category: current affairs daily