Global GHG Emissions to Hit Record High in 2025, Carbon Budget May Run Out by 2029

Global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to surge to their highest level in history in 2025 , according to the latest Global Carbon Budget assessment released at COP30 in Belém, Brazil . The findings reveal that despite a decade of global pledges under the Paris Agreement, fossil fuel emissions continue to rise, deepening concerns about the world’s ability to stay within safe warming limits.

Record Increase in Fossil Fuel Emissions

The report estimates that fossil fuel emissions will reach 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025 , the highest on record, representing a 1.1% rise from 2024 . Overall global GHG emissions have climbed to nearly 10% above 2015 levels . At this pace, scientists warn that the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C could be exhausted by 2029 , narrowing the window for meaningful climate action.

India’s Emission Growth Slows

India is projected to emit about 3.23 billion tonnes in 2025. Its emissions continue to grow, but at a slower rate of 1.4% , supported by accelerated solar power capacity and reduced energy demand due to an early monsoon. Growth in coal consumption has notably weakened, a trend also visible in China. Despite being the third-largest emitter in absolute terms , India’s per capita emissions remain among the lowest globally.

Major Emitters: United States Shows Sharp Rise

China remains the world’s largest emitter with 12.3 billion tonnes , followed by the United States at 5 billion tonnes —which recorded the sharpest annual rise among major economies at 1.9% , reversing previous declines.

Mounting Scientific Warnings

Experts caution that achieving the 1.5°C target is becoming increasingly improbable without immediate global reductions in oil, gas and coal use. Over 35 countries have demonstrated that emissions can fall while economies grow, yet rapid global decarbonisation remains essential to prevent escalating climate risks.

Exam Points

• Global fossil fuel emissions in 2025: 38.1 billion tonnes (record high) .

• Remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C may run out by 2029 .

• India’s emissions to rise by 1.4% (3.23 billion tonnes) .

• Oil + gas together make up 55% of global fossil emissions .

• China: 12.3 billion tonnes ; USA: 5 billion tonnes , fastest rising major emitter.