As 2026 dawns, the global order no longer resembles a stable web of alliances but a fractured mosaic of overlapping crises and competing interests. Geopolitics, artificial intelligence, trade weaponisation and climate urgency are colliding in unpredictable ways. For India, this turbulence has not merely posed risks; it has tested—and largely validated—New Delhi’s strategy of multi-alignment in a world marked by deep interdependence and thinning trust.
Interdependence without confidence
The defining feature of 2025 was not war alone, but the use of economic ties as instruments of pressure. Globalisation, once sold as a stabilising force, increasingly became a tool of coercion. Supply chains tightened, markets convulsed and long-held strategic assumptions acquired uncomfortable caveats.
For New Delhi, the year became a stress test of its belief that India could be a “friend to all” without becoming dependent on any single power. The turbulence revealed a hard truth: interdependence now coexists with minimal trust, forcing states to hedge constantly.
When supply chains turned into weapons
Two shocks captured this reality. First, China’s restrictions on critical rare-earth exports disrupted clean-energy and electric-vehicle supply chains, threatening India’s green transition. Second, renewed protectionism in Washington—under U.S. President Donald Trump —with steep tariffs on Indian exports, exposed the vulnerability of labour-intensive industries to abrupt policy shifts.
This was “weaponised interdependence” in action. Rather than respond with reactive diplomacy, India pivoted towards diversification—seeking resilience without severing ties.
Trade, minerals and strategic resilience
India doubled down on economic engagement. Negotiations for free trade agreements accelerated with partners across regions, while domestically the National Critical Mineral Mission was fast-tracked and cooperation deepened with mineral-secure partners. The message was pragmatic: strategic autonomy in today’s world is inseparable from supply-chain resilience. Diversification, not decoupling, became the chosen path.
Domestic contrasts: pressure and promise
Externally driven shocks placed pressure on the rupee and raised inflation risks through costlier imports. Yet domestically, India’s fundamentals proved resilient. Consumption held up, investment momentum continued, and fiscal stability cushioned global volatility.
Structural reforms also advanced. Long-pending labour codes and the SHANTI Act, opening nuclear energy to private investment, signalled an effort to build a shock-resistant economy. Even as the International Monetary Fund pushed India’s $5-trillion milestone to 2028–29, India overtook Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy—reinforcing confidence in a reform-driven growth path.
Multi-alignment in practice
India’s diplomacy in 2025 showed that multi-alignment is not rhetorical hedging but operational statecraft. New Delhi maintained working relationships with Washington, Moscow and Beijing while deepening ties across the Global South. Engagements in the Indo-Pacific and Africa highlighted India’s ambition to act as a net security provider and a “vishwa bandhu”—a friend to the world.
This approach avoided binary loyalties. It accepted that in a low-trust environment, autonomy is preserved not by standing apart, but by engaging widely on India’s own terms.
Climate leadership amid hard choices
On climate, India sought to bridge ambition with realism. It positioned itself as a leading Global South voice, pressing developed nations to move from pledges to predictable climate finance and technology transfer. Leadership in the International Solar Alliance gathered momentum as clean-energy demand surged.
Yet the balancing act remains delicate. Coal continues to play a role even as solar