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India’s 2025–26 Sugar Output to Rise 18.6 percent ISMA Forecast

November 12, 2025

 

  • India’s sugar production is projected to increase by 18.6% to 30.95 million tonnes in the 2025–26 marketing year (October–September) , according to estimates released by the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) . The sharp rise comes after a subdued 2024–25 season, when production stood at 26.1 million tonnes , reflecting improved monsoon patterns, water availability, and crop health across key sugar-producing states.

State-Wise Production Outlook

ISMA’s forecast attributes the production growth mainly to Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka , which together account for over 90% of India’s sugar output:

  • Maharashtra: 13.0 million tonnes

  • Uttar Pradesh: 10.32 million tonnes

  • Karnataka: 6.35 million tonnes

The total sugarcane acreage for 2024–25 stands at 5.735 million hectares , slightly higher than the previous year. Maharashtra’s cane area rose from 1.38 to 1.47 million hectares , and Karnataka’s expanded 6% to 0.68 million hectares . Uttar Pradesh’s area declined 3% to 2.257 million hectares , but the crop quality improved significantly due to better rainfall and a higher proportion of plant cane .

Balance Sheet and Export Outlook

ISMA projects:

  • Opening Stock: 5 million tonnes

  • Ethanol Diversion: 3.4 million tonnes

  • Total Availability: 35.95 million tonnes

  • Domestic Consumption: 28.5 million tonnes
    This leaves a surplus of nearly 2 million tonnes , which India could export depending on government policy. ISMA has urged the Centre to announce the sugar export policy promptly to leverage favourable global prices and maintain domestic market stability.

Exam Pointers

  • Total Sugar Output (2025–26): 30.95 million tonnes (+18.6%)

  • Top Producers: Maharashtra (13 MT), UP (10.32 MT), Karnataka (6.35 MT)

  • Ethanol Diversion: 3.4 MT

  • Domestic Demand: 28.5 MT

  • Export Potential: ~2 MT

  • Source: ISMA

Outlook

With stronger crop yields , expanded ethanol blending programmes , and steady demand , India’s sugar sector enters FY 2025–26 on solid footing. The country is set to retain its position as a major global sugar supplier while advancing its bio-energy diversification goals .

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