GTRI Proposes Three-Step Plan to Safeguard India–U.S. Trade Interests

• The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has outlined a comprehensive three-step plan to protect India’s trade interests with the United States amid rising tariff pressures and sanctions-related risks. The proposal seeks to balance India’s economic security with strategic autonomy, ensuring continued access to global markets and fair trade terms.

Step 1: Halting Russian Oil Imports Under Sanctions

• GTRI’s first recommendation urges India to suspend crude oil imports from Russian companies under U.S. sanctions , specifically Rosneft and Lukoil , which together account for around 57% of Russia’s crude output . The think tank cautioned that continuing to trade with these firms could expose India to secondary U.S. sanctions , potentially disrupting access to SWIFT , dollar-based transactions, and international banking networks. Such consequences, it noted, would be more damaging than the current tariff burden on exports.

Step 2: Seeking Withdrawal of Punitive U.S. Tariffs

• After halting oil imports from sanctioned Russian entities, India should push for the removal of the 25% “Russian oil” tariff imposed by Washington on July 31, 2025 . This additional duty has raised India’s total tariff burden on U.S. exports to 50% , leading to a 37% decline in exports between May and September 2025 . GTRI argues that eliminating this punitive tariff could restore competitiveness and revive export growth, especially in labour-intensive sectors.

Step 3: Resuming Balanced Trade Negotiations

• The final step involves resuming bilateral trade talks once tariff rates are normalised. GTRI suggests India should demand tariff parity similar to other key U.S. partners, targeting an average duty rate of 15% . Additionally, India should seek duty-free access for priority sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and gems and jewellery to strengthen its foothold in the U.S. market.

Prospects of a Renewed Agreement

• Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has confirmed that India–U.S. trade discussions are in an advanced phase. A potential deal could lower tariffs to 15% in exchange for India reducing Russian oil imports and expanding U.S. energy purchases.

Exam Summary

• Report by: Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI)

• Key Russian firms: Rosneft and Lukoil

• Tariff Impact: 25% “Russian oil” duty raised overall burden to 50%

• Export Drop: 37% (May–Sept 2025)

• Three-Step Plan: Halt Russian oil imports – Remove tariffs – Resume trade talks

In essence, GTRI’s proposal provides a pragmatic path for restoring India–U.S. trade balance while preserving economic and strategic flexibility.