China Population Falls for Fourth Year as Births Hit Record Low

China’s Population Decline Deepens in 2025 Despite Policy Push

China recorded its fourth consecutive annual population decline in 2025, underscoring intensifying social and economic pressures despite expanded family-support measures. Official data released this week showed the population fell by about 3 million to 1.404 billion , leaving China as the world’s second-most populous nation , behind India.

Births Sink to a New Record Low

Births dropped sharply to 7.92 million in 2025 , a decline of 1.62 million (around 17%) from the previous year. This erased the modest rebound seen in 2024 and extended the downtrend that began after 2016. The crude birth rate slid to 5.63 births per 1,000 people , the lowest since modern records began.

Fertility Rate Signals Long-Term Shrinkage

China’s fertility rate remains far below replacement. The last official figure stood at 1.3 (2020) , while recent estimates place it near 1.0 —well under the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman . These levels point to sustained population contraction and rapid ageing in the decades ahead.

Economic Pressures Shape Family Choices

Demographers link the decline to rising living costs , intense education expenses, job-market uncertainty , and slower economic growth . Strained household budgets have reinforced hesitancy among younger couples to have children, muting the impact of official encouragement.

Policy Shifts Show Limited Impact

Authorities have rolled out cash subsidies (about 3,600 yuan per child) , tax incentives for childcare , and expanded maternity support. In 2025, some contraceptives were removed from tax exemptions . Yet births continue to fall, highlighting the limits of policy tools in reversing deep-seated social norms and economic constraints .

Exam-Focused Points

• Replacement-level fertility is ~ 2.1 births per woman .

• China shifted from one-child (pre-2015) to two-child (2015) and three-child (2021) policies.

• 2025 births: 7.92 million ; crude birth rate: 5.63/1,000 (record low).

• India overtook China as the world’s most populous country in 2023 .

• Persistent low fertility implies ageing population and labour-force pressures .