India to Lead Global Oil Demand Growth Till 2035: IEA

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its World Energy Outlook 2025 , India is set to become the largest driver of global oil demand growth through 2035. Rapid economic expansion, rising incomes, urbanisation, and a large shift toward modern energy services are reshaping India’s role in global energy markets. The country’s expanding needs across transport, industry, petrochemicals, and residential sectors place it at the centre of global demand trends.

India as the Epicentre of Oil Demand

India’s oil consumption is projected to grow from 5.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2024 to nearly 8 mbpd in 2035 . Demand will be propelled by:

• Increasing vehicle ownership

• Growth in aviation

• Expanding petrochemical and plastics production

• Rising LPG consumption for household cooking

India alone is expected to account for almost half of the total global increase in oil demand over the period.

Import Dependence and Refining Growth

India’s reliance on imported crude is expected to deepen despite efforts to boost domestic output. Import dependence may rise from 87% (2024) to 92% by 2035 . To meet rising domestic consumption and boost exports, refining capacity is projected to expand from 6 mbpd in 2024 to about 7.5 mbpd in 2035 , consolidating India’s status as a major exporter of transport fuels and an important swing supplier in global markets.

Gas, Coal and Broader Energy Demand

Natural gas demand is expected to nearly double to 140 bcm by 2035, with LNG imports rising to around 50 bcm . Coal demand will continue moderate growth, supported by domestic mining expansion, including upgrades like the Gevra mine project , helping meet industrial and power sector needs.

Clean Energy Transition

India has already surpassed its target of 50% non-fossil power capacity ahead of 2030. By 2035 , non-fossil energy sources are expected to form nearly 70% of installed capacity . Renewables will meet nearly all new electricity demand, supported by growth in battery storage, transmission upgrades, nuclear expansion, and increased ethanol blending. India’s carbon emissions are projected to peak around 2040 , supporting its net-zero by 2070 goal.

Exam Points

• India’s oil demand projected to reach ~8 mbpd by 2035 .

• Oil import dependence expected to rise to ~92% by 2035 .

• Refining capacity to expand to ~7.5 mbpd .

• Natural gas demand to reach ~140 bcm by 2035.

• LNG imports to rise to ~50 bcm .

• India’s energy demand to grow by over 15